CME expected to hit later tonight and tomorow
A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) en route to Earth from sunspot 1158 will buffet our planet's magnetic field during the next 24-48 hours. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of geomagnetic activity on Feb. 17th. Radio blackout alert is back from R3 to R1 again.
Sunspot 1158 has unleashed the strongest solar flare in more than four years. The eruption, which peaked at 0156 UT on Feb. 15th, registered X2 on the Richter scale of solar flares. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation
X-flares are the strongest type of solar flare, and this is the first such eruption of new Solar Cycle 24. In addition to flashing Earth with UV radiation, the explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) in our direction. The expanding cloud may be seen in this movie from NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft. Geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives on or about Feb 17th. Stay tuned.
Latest Alert: Feb 15 2219 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
Less than a week ago, sunspot 1158 didn't exist. Now it is wider than the planet Jupiter and unleashing the strongest solar flares since Dec. 2006. Click on the arrow to witness the amazing 5-day development of this active region, courtesy of NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:
Global D-Region Absorption Prediction
We just had another M1.0
CME, like the one we saw from the X2 flare, ejects solar wind, which contains charged particles (electrons and protons).
If any of these charged particles enter the earth's atmosphere without being blocked by the magnetosphere (possibly due to a solar flare bombardment - or 2 in this case), it can cause lightning.
How Lightning Develops Between the Cloud (atmosphere) and the Ground: "A moving thunderstorm gathers another pool of positively charged particles along the ground that travel with the storm. As the differences in charges continue to increase, positively charged particles rise up taller objects such as trees, houses, and telephone poles. Have you ever been under a storm and had your hair stand up? Yes, the particles also can move up you! This is one of nature's warning signs that says you are in the wrong place, and you may be a lightning target!
The negatively charged area in the storm will send out a charge toward the ground called a stepped leader. It is invisible to the human eye, and moves in steps in less than a second toward the ground. When it gets close to the ground, it is attracted by all these positively charged objects, and a channel develops. You see the electrical transfer in this channel as lightning. There may be several return strokes of electricity within the established channel that you will see as flickering lightning."
no CME hitting us today
Tomorrow evening sometime is the estimated arival time, we will be hit by the M6.6 as well as the X2.2
Hope they do not merge! Because if they do, it will be way greater than a X2.2 hitting us
and if the M hits 1st, it will weaken the magnetosphere letting that X roll right in
Tomorrow is a day to watch super close!
Rising solar winds will bend the our geomagnetic field and are due to multiple of geo-effective cmes, not just a few big ones. Higher the solar wind pressure more it bends down.
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report