While Earth expects CME impact, Sunspot 1613 produced M2.0 solar flare

Active region 1613 produced M2.0 solar flare at 23:28 UTC on November 12, 2012. This expanding region is rotating into direct Earth-view position and may produce more activity. Sunspots 1610, 1611 and 1614 are currently the largest sunspots on the visible solar disk. There is an increasing chance for an isolated M-Class solar flare event - NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate 35% chance of M-class and 5% chance of X-class solar flares.

A Type II Radio emission was associated with the event. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 827
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 13 0004 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 12 2328 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 645 km/s



Minor geomagnetic storming at high latitudes is expected due to the arrival of the CMEs released on November 9 and 10. A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was detected by the ground based Magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado at 23:19 UTC.  The passage of the interplanetary shock past Earth is possible in the hours ahead. Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on November 14  as CME effects subside.

Shockwave registered by Kiruna magnetometer in Sweden (CRedit: Kiruna/IRF)


SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Nov 12 2316 UTC
Deviation: 16 nT
Station: Boulder

Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 12 2328 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 645 km/s


According to latest SIDC report, solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring three C flares and now fresh M-class flare. C-level flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a chance for an M flare, especially from AR 11614 and 11610.


Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/24:00 UTC 
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1605 N16W82 340 0010 Bxo 07 04 Beta
1609 S14W10 263 0010 Hrx 04 03 Alpha
1610 S22W10 263 0550 Eki 11 51 Beta-Gamma
1611 N15E13 240 0250 Eho 12 12 Beta-Gamma
1612 N09E25 228 0100 Hsx 05 01 Alpha
1613 S22E43 210 0170 Dso 10 10 Beta
1614 N16E58 195 0350 Fho 17 19 Beta
1615 N10E48 205 0160 Cao 10 08 Beta


Solar wind
speed: 449.0 km/sec
density: 14.7 protons/cm3

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 133 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal21.1 nT
Bz9.1 nT north

Featured image: SDO


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