Solar activity increased again – M5.2 from central region on the Sun
Region 1967 (S13W12, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced three moderate solar flares in last couple of hours. M3.8 was detected at 01:23 UTC, followed by M1.2 at 03:06 UTC and an impulsive M5.2 at 04:00 UTC.
This region is almost directly facing our planet, CMEs released from it would most likely be Earth directed. However, we still haven't observed any significant CME.
Region 1967 is making its second rotation on the Earth side of the Sun. This active region was the return of old Region 1944 which produced a total of 44 C-class, 7 M-class and 1 X-class events during its last rotation. Since it returned on January 27th it produced 22 M-class x-ray events.
Region 1968 (N10W09, Ekc/Beta-gamma) has so far released a couple of M-class and numerous C-class flares. Its location is above Region 1967, chance of Earth directed CMEs is almost the same.
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) from February 4 through 6.
Table below shows only M-class events from Region 1967 (ex 1944) on its second rotation through Earth side of the Sun:
| EName | Start | Stop | Peak | GOES Class | Derived Position |
| gev_20140127_0105 | 2014/01/27 01:05:00 | 01:39:00 | 01:22:00 | M1.0 | S16E88 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140127_0202 | 2014/01/27 02:02:00 | 02:18:00 | 02:11:00 | M1.1 | S13E88 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140127_2205 | 2014/01/27 22:05:00 | 22:15:00 | 22:10:00 | M4.9 | S14E88 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_0402 | 2014/01/28 04:02:00 | 04:13:00 | 04:09:00 | M1.5 | S14E88 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_0725 | 2014/01/28 07:25:00 | 07:34:00 | 07:31:00 | M3.6 | S10E75 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_1134 | 2014/01/28 11:34:00 | 11:41:00 | 11:38:00 | M1.4 | S10E72 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_1233 | 2014/01/28 12:33:00 | 12:50:00 | 12:46:00 | M1.3 | S15E79 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_1524 | 2014/01/28 15:24:00 | 15:30:00 | 15:26:00 | M3.5 | S13E88 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_1900 | 2014/01/28 19:00:00 | 19:46:00 | 19:40:00 | M4.9 | S14E75 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140128_2204 | 2014/01/28 22:04:00 | 22:20:00 | 22:16:00 | M2.6 | S14E74 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140130_0633 | 2014/01/30 06:33:00 | 06:44:00 | 06:39:00 | M2.1 | S14E54 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140130_0754 | 2014/01/30 07:54:00 | 08:41:00 | 08:11:00 | M1.1 | S11E54 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140130_1548 | 2014/01/30 15:48:00 | 16:28:00 | 16:11:00 | M6.6 | S11E64 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140201_0119 | 2014/02/01 01:19:00 | 01:38:00 | 01:25:00 | M1.0 | S10E26 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140201_0714 | 2014/02/01 07:14:00 | 07:45:00 | 07:23:00 | M3.0 | S10E22 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140202_0717 | 2014/02/02 07:17:00 | 08:29:00 | 08:20:00 | M2.2 | S11E13 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140202_0924 | 2014/02/02 09:24:00 | 09:36:00 | 09:31:00 | M4.4 | S10E14 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140202_1805 | 2014/02/02 18:05:00 | 18:18:00 | 18:11:00 | M3.1 | S10E08 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140202_2124 | 2014/02/02 21:24:00 | 22:14:00 | 22:04:00 | M1.3 | S10E01 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140204_0116 | 2014/02/04 01:16:00 | 01:31:00 | 01:23:00 | M3.8 | S09W13 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140204_0240 | 2014/02/04 02:40:00 | 03:48:00 | 03:06:00 | M1.2 | S15W03 ( 1967 ) |
| gev_20140204_0357 | 2014/02/04 03:57:00 | 04:06:00 | 04:00:00 | M5.2 | S14W07 ( 1967 ) |
Data source: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Sunspots
There are currently 4 active sunspot groups on the Earth side of the Sun. Both Regions 1967 and 1968 remained prominent in area/coverage. Region 1967 maintained several strong deltas along with a southeast-to-northwest orientated neutral line.
1967 S13W12 114 1490 18 FKC 88 BGD
1968 N10W09 110 320 14 EKC 33 BG
1969 S11W59 161 30 4 DRO 3 B
1970 S20E40 60 30 4 DRO 4 B
Sunspots on February 4, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO HMI
Geomagnetic field
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on February 4 and quiet to unsettled levels on February 5 as a potential glancing blow from the January 31 CME is forecast. A return to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated on February 6 after any CME effects subside.
Meanwhile, Chad Blakley, an aurora tour guide in Sweden's Abisko National Park, reported they are enjoying one of their best years ever. "So far we have seen auroras on 29 out of the 31 nights we have looked. Last night was extra special [February 1]. The sky exploded in color and I was lucky to capture the phenomenon with several different cameras from multiple angles."
Video courtesy of Lights Over Lapland
Featured image: Lights Over Lapland (screenshot from the movie)
please tell me the size of sunspot 1967 relative to the carrington drawing from 1859