M3.2 solar blast from Sunspot 1402 produced Earth-directed CME

The long-duration blast at active region 1402 produced M3.2 solar flare and CME which is heading toward Earth. This was two-wave flare and first CME wave was overtaken by the 2nd wave due to its higher speed velocity.The major bulk of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north. A minor R1 Level Radio Blackout resulted. Active Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth's magnetic field. There are currrently 13 active regions facing Earth.





NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft recorded an impressive CME emerging from the blast site and here you can watch movie #1 & movie #2.


Earth-directed CME

Confirmation of earth-directed CME came from analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab with forecasts of strong geomagnetic storms this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st somewhere about 22:30 UTC. This should be exciting time for aurora watchers so we expect some amazing images. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME that took place on January 16th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction



Sweep frequency radio events

Today's event caused Type II and Type IV Sweep Frequency events. Type II and IV events are caused by slower-moving solar material propagating outward at speeds varying between approximately 800 and 1600 kilometers per second. Type II and IV radio bursts are of particular importance. Solar material plunging through the corona generates characteristic radio bursts. Events which cause Type II and/or IV radio sweep events may indicate the potential for increased magnetic activity (and decreased propagation quality) within 48 hours. Sweep frequency radio events are capable of producing Short Wave Fades (SWFs) and Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SIDs).  SWFs and SIDs cause absorption of radio signals (due to intense ionization) at frequencies up to and well in excess of 500 MHz. Microwave continuum bursts can affect frequencies up to 30 GHz. Frequencies in the HF region can be completely blacked out for a period of time during intense energetic events.



 

CURRENT CONDITIONS  (22:45UTC)

Solar wind
speed: 351.2 km/sec
density: 5.2 protons/cm3


X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 1608 UT Jan19
24-hr: M3 1608 UT Jan19


The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 148 sfu


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet


Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal3.7 nT
Bz0.6 nT south 





Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (19 Jan 2012)
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15) produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s). Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z (estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered. Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1401 and 1402.

The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for active levels on 21 January due to the expected arrival of todays CME.

Comments

Georgette McGuire Margot on Facebook 2 years ago

It occurred to me when I was 13 yrs old .I had a dream I was floating along in cosmos like a satellite.I was admiring all the stars,planets,lights of every imaginable color there are no words to describe the beauty or colors of this dream of the heavens.Then I heard a voice say GEORGETTE!WAKE UP!I agreed opening my eyes at same time my room was on fire next to my bed a wall of flames.....I came up out of the bed and simply turning the door knobs went through three doors to get out ran into fireman knocking him back three ft. the doors would have had at least six locks on them ...the doors were not locked..which was extraordinary because granny had OCD had several bolts latches hooks deadbolts chains sliding slab bolts etc. on all her doors and the windows had nails in them so you couldn't just break it open.....thanks for reminding me!

Doccus 2 years ago

Has it occurred to anyone else just what an breathtakingly amazing thing a star is..? To me, the thought of an endless vacuum dotted with billions of these round nuclear furnaces leaves me speechless.. Not making any point... just saying..

Mike (@Doccus) 2 years ago

Yeah it's crazy nuts. And to remember that we're literally made from matter forged from these stars is amazing. To be a human with a brain complicated and educated enough to be able to comprehend how amazing stars are is amazing. What's also amazing is how easy it is to forget how amazing the universe and every second of our precious life is.

TheWatchers Adorra Eli on Facebook 2 years ago

No this CME alone will not cause powergrid failures... it is not the size of CME that causes powergrid failures but the amount of solar material in combination with solar wind.

robert 2 years ago

Could this cause powergrid failure? If not, what size CME would?

Paul Felix Schott (@robert) 2 years ago

in time it will, This is not a game or joke our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in the State of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth’s Magnet Polls of the North and the South, North Poll. Its Called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis. The day will come when you will be able to see it all over Earth as in the year 1859 Solar Flare. Two Astronomer’s Hodgson and Carrington told the World that the Solar Flare made a Geomagnetic Storm reach Earth in hours not days. Back then it gave new meaning to Reach For The Skies from Telegraph Operators. For hours sparks flew from the key board. Even after the Batteries were disconnected. Our Sun’s UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day go’s by, read and i will tell you why. The Great big forest have be striped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees our are Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant. The Forest Trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in. The Forest Trees do more then just make Oxygen they stop Soil Erosion, just Look at the 1930 Dust Bowl. Greed by our Government taxes led farmers to clear cut all their Forest and farm all the land they were being Tax on. They had to farm it to pay for the Taxes. Why leave the Trees when food crop makes Money. This Did not Help the Depression that effected most all Worldwide. The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a shield from most bugs so they do not eat the tree. Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side with out Sun Light,And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there. With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun’s UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon. Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thinner the Oxygen and colder it gets. Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no Sun Light and you will see or should i say feel the cold stinging any of your exposed skin. If you are new to Mt. Climbing stay below 10,000Ft. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i have been with for years know this very well, and the Radiation Hazards to humans at High Altitudes. Soon the Sun’s Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun Light for even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you have not seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising the Oceans. And there shall be famines, and pestilences, and Earthquakes, in divers places such as was not from the beginning of the Creation. The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all high temp records and the temp it is still going up. All the Worlds Ice Glacier are melting at an Accelerating Rate. The Glaciers and Polar Ice Caps store more water than all the Fresh Water Lakes on Earth. The Bad Weather Storms now are Babies compared to what is to come. They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth and more Water molecules will evaporate and go up into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder with out sun light and hotter with it. The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer. If every living person on Earth were to Plant A Tree Today we might have a chance. The Earth’s Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him. Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away. This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it and may our Lord Bless all that do so. The Lord’s Little Helper Paul Felix Schott [email protected] KI4-AEX P.S. 2 Peter 3:10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the Earth and its works will be burned up.

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