Coronal mass ejection to reach planet on February 14
Coronal mass ejection (CME) is seen in the latest images, as the result of a filament lifting off in the northern hemisphere. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. It could produce nice auroras around both polar circles. The movie below captured by SDO and STEREO Ahead COR2 shows that there is potential for an Earth bound plasma cloud. It appears to be Earth directed. This CME was produces on February 10. The latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model shows a possible impact on February 14th.
Earth-directed Sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size. By now it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet.
Numerous C-Class flares, with the biggest recorded as C7.9, were detected this morning. The source of all this activity is a returning region (1402) on the northeast limb. Rarely same sunspot make the whole rotation so the returning of Sunspot 1402 will be very interesting. Returning active Sunspot 1402 from the previous rotation, will begin to rotate back into view over the weekend.
The latest STEREO Behind COR 2 shows some strange interference on image.
speed: 326.9 km/sec
density: 0.2 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C7 1854 UT Feb11
24-hr: C7 1004 UT Feb11
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 111 sfu
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.7 nT
Bz: 2.5 nT north
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (11 Feb 2012)
Solar activity was low due to a trio of C7 x-ray events. Regions 1416 (S19W02) and 1417 (N16E44) each produced C7 events at 10/2352Z and 11/1854Z respectively. The third C7 event was observed at 11/1004Z from behind the east limb near N25. The activity behind the NE limb portends the return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=218). Region 1416 continued its growth phase, both in area and spot count, and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. At about 10/1900Z, a 27 degree long segmented filament erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk. The ENE to WSW oriented filament was centered at N29E14. An associated CME was observed lifting of the NE
limb, first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2012Z. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (12 - 14 February).
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind speeds decreased steadily through the period from 450 km/s to about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 - 13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day two and through day three (14 February), field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the February 10 CME.