Coronal mass ejection to reach planet on February 14

Coronal mass ejection (CME) is seen in the latest images, as the result of a filament lifting off in the northern hemisphere. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. It could produce nice auroras around both polar circles. The movie below captured by SDO and STEREO Ahead COR2 shows that there is potential for an Earth bound plasma cloud. It appears to be Earth directed. This CME was produces on February 10. The latest WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction model shows a possible impact on February 14th.


Earth-directed Sunspot AR1416 has doubled in size. By now it has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any such eruptions this weekend would be Earth directed as the sunspot turns to face our planet.



Numerous C-Class flares, with the biggest recorded as C7.9, were detected this morning. The source of all this activity is a returning region (1402) on the northeast limb. Rarely same sunspot make the whole rotation so the returning of Sunspot 1402 will be very interesting. Returning active Sunspot 1402 from the previous rotation, will begin to rotate back into view over the weekend.

The latest STEREO Behind COR 2 shows some strange interference on image.


CURRENT CONDITIONS


Solar wind
speed: 326.9 km/sec
density: 0.2 protons/cm3


X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C7 1854 UT Feb11
24-hr: C7 1004 UT Feb11


The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 111 sfu


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet


Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal4.7 nT
Bz2.5 nT north





Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity (11 Feb 2012)

Solar activity was low due to a trio of C7 x-ray events. Regions 1416 (S19W02) and 1417 (N16E44) each produced C7 events at 10/2352Z and 11/1854Z respectively. The third C7 event was observed at 11/1004Z from behind the east limb near N25. The activity behind the NE limb portends the return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=218). Region 1416 continued its growth phase, both in area and spot count, and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. At about 10/1900Z, a 27 degree long segmented filament erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk. The ENE to WSW oriented filament was centered at N29E14. An associated CME was observed lifting of the NE
limb, first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2012Z. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (12 - 14 February).

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind speeds decreased steadily through the period from 450 km/s to about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 - 13 February) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Late on day two and through day three (14 February), field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with high latitude minor storm intervals. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from the February 10 CME.

 





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Comments

TheWatchers Adorra Eli on Facebook 2 years ago

Veronica didn't get it! For way too long... :P / b-bye

Suzie Billingham on Facebook 2 years ago

There is a cme due on 14th from a C class flare a few days ago. This is different from the threat of M class flares. This is accurate information. And is the same you'll find on any official website and is not sensationalism.

Veronica Velasquez on Facebook 2 years ago

Kiwi, my comments are not directed at you, and my point is very valid.

Kiwi-Pete S. Thompson on Facebook 2 years ago

My daughter was flying nack too Alaska during the worst one this year... Needless to say I was tracking the flight tho' apparently w/out cause for alarm... So cool your jets, eh!!!

Veronica Velasquez on Facebook 2 years ago

The title of this "article" is misleading. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-flares during the next 24 hours. Any such eruption would likely be Earth-directed as the sunspot is facing our planet. 30% chance and "likely"........... When you title and forward out info to the masses with your verbiage, at a time when too many are in unneccessary fear about CMEs, you risk making your organisation appear unreliable, slanted, and suspicious.

Chillymanjaro (@Veronica Velasquez on Facebook) 2 years ago

Dear Veronica, if you read again more carefully you will see that we are talking about CME generated from event on February 10th. You don't need tobelieve us, read the NOAA/SWPC report (Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2012). Also check up two great CME prediction models from ENLIL http://solarham.com/cmewatch2.htm I would like you to explain me why is misleading and why we should not write about CMEs in time when people are afraid of them?! Make no sense. Maybe we don't need to write about volcanoes, tropical storms or floods because people afraid of them too. Some people are afraid of deep sea and space....Hmm?! And yes, NOAA forecasters predict 30% chance of M-class which is far more usual than impact of Earth-directed CME. 30% is CHANCE, possibility and this CME is fact and we always give advantage to fact over possibility. Anyway, we give our self a freedom to pick a title of article. Fearmongering was NEVER EVER our intention and if you read our articles without "coloured glasses" you can realise that we ALWAYS try to find a solution as well as explain the nature of things. I wont criticise your feeling for righteousness cause surely you have one, but pick your target carefuly next time. As far as I know, you could be more suspicious than us. And we are individuals not an organisation, we are free-spirited, unbounded and hard-working people that fight fearmongering and doom-mongering, admirers of nature and universe, lovers of free idea and knowledge so don't judge us. We are trying to do our best to inform people and communities and to bring the message and signs of times in your home. Peace and Love!

Richard 2 years ago

I plan to fly into N.Y.C. on the 14th....Should I be concerned?

Chillymanjaro (@Richard) 2 years ago

Well, not really. There is no reason for concern. This CME was not so strong and should only produce minor geomagnetic storm levels. It's impact will be visible as auroras around Arctic Circle so I advice you to pick a seat near window, maybe you could spot some nice aurora. Have a nice trip!

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