Solar activity is increasing – Two more M-class solar flares after powerfull X-class event

Solar activity is increasing! Massive sunspot AR1429 emerged on March 2nd and it is crackling with strong solar flares. Sunspot 1429 just produced a short duration M2.1 solar flare at 19:16 UTC, followed by an M1.8 at 19:30 UTC. These are in addition to smaller flares today, C5.4, C7.8 and C9.8.

A long duration and major X1.1 solar flare peaked at 04:09 UTC Monday morning resulting a strong R3 Level radio blackout. R3 means strong radio blackout level with possibility of wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth and low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour. A long 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 12000pfu was detected also.

An X1-class solar flare erupted on March 5th at 04:13 UTC and hurled a bright CME into space. The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. Mercury and Venus are on its path. This is the 10th largest solar flare of the current Sunspot Cycle and it also happens to be the 10th X-Class flare as well. It is the second X-class sun storm of 2012. The first event occurred on Jan. 27 and registered as an X1.7 on the space weather scale used by astronomers.

Another CME was produced by an M2-class eruption from the same sunspot on March 4th. This CME cloud is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UTC. Look at animated forecast track for the likely progression of the cloud. When the CME from X-class flare arrives at Earth over the next day or two, the planet might already be in the midst of a geomagnetic storm.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for day 1 (06 Mar) due to combined effects from the M2/CME event observed on 04 March and a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream. Active conditions with a chance for minor storm periods are forecast for the second day (07 Mar) due to an expected glancing blow from X1/full halo CME. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the third day (08 Mar).

 

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

Solar wind
speed: 373.2 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm³

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 1916 UT Mar05
24-hr: X1 0410 UT Mar05

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 7.0 nT
B_z: 2.8 nT south

Recent activity from Region 1429 has caused an elevated level of solar protons near Earth. It is expected that the protons will continue to slowly increase, reaching the S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm category in the next 24 hours. In addition, although the trajectory of the CME from early on March 5 is expected to largely miss earth, there may be isolated G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm levels from late March 6 thru March 7 (UTC). The responsible party for this activity, NOAA Region 1429, is capable of more of the same as it rotates nearer mid-disk.

According to NOAA/SWPC 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast, Solar activity is expected to be moderate, but there is a chance for additional major flare activity and/or a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429.

As 1429 continues to rotate into a more geoeffective position, the chances for Earth directed explosions will increase. NOAA/SWPC forecasters give 75% chance for M-class event and 30 % chance for X-class event in the next 24 hours.

New Sunspot 1430 was numbered on Sunday and is located to the west of 1429. A fast growing Sunspot located in the southwest quadrant should be numbered 1431 on Monday.

Solar flares happen when the powerful magnetic fields in and around the sun reconnect. They’re usually associated with active regions, which we call sunspots, where the magnetic fields are strongest. Flares are classified according to their strength. The smallest ones are B-class, followed by C, M and X, the largest. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a ten-fold increase in energy output. So an X is 10 times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class, there is a finer scale from 1 to 9. Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9.

C-class flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts. The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X28. A powerful X-class flare like that can create long lasting radiation storms, which can harm satellites and even give airline passengers, flying near the poles, small radiation doses. X flares also have the potential to create global transmission problems and world-wide blackouts.

 

For the latest on space weather, check out our SpaceWeatherStation!

Related posts:

1. Solar activity increasing – M-class flares, auroras and magnetic filaments Recently formed sunspot 1401 awoke yesterday afternoon and produced an M1.7 solar flare at 19:12 UTC. AR 1401 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration which could lead to further solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. There are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the......
2. Major X1.1 solar flare peaked around Sunspot 1429 on March 5th, 2012 Earth orbiting satellites have detected an X1.1-class solar flare from sunspot AR1429 that produced a bright CME and resulted with strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. The flare peaked at 04:13 UTC on March 5th. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now seen in the latest STEREO Behind and Lasco images. The expanding plasma cloud is mostly heading towards the north and east, however a small portion looks to be Earth directed. The expanding cloud will probably deliver a......
3. Several M-class flares today Several M-Class flares (7) took place during the day on Monday. Sunspot 1165 which is located in the southern hemisphere is in the process of rotating onto the western limb and will soon be out of direct earth view. Sunspot 1164 which is in the northern hemisphere will also rotate onto the western limb soon after 1165. The chances for strong solar flares will decrease somewhat once these regions are out of view, however there......
4. Subsiding solar activity, small chances for M-class flares Two new regions rotated into view on the eastern limb and were numbered 1363 and 1364 on Tuesday. Numerous low level C-Class flares have been detected within the past 24 hours around Sunspot 1362 and new Sunspot 1363. Region 1361 in the northern hemisphere is now listed as having a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and is directly facing Earth. There will remain the risk for an isolated M-Class flares on Wednesday. NOAA forecast gives 10% chance......
5. Solar Storms Season Heating Up Sunspots — cooler regions fraught with intense magnetic fields — now regularly dot the surface of the sun, and the star has unleashed several powerful flares in recent months, including a Feb. 14 blast that was the most powerful outburst in more than four years. All signs suggest that the sun has shaken itself out of its slumber, researchers say. After three years in a deep solar sleep of historic proportions, the sun is starting to wake......
6. Another two M-class solar flares occur today, Sunspot 1389 turning earthwards Emerging over the sun’s southeastern limb, sunspot AR1389 unleashed two M-class solar flares on Dec. 29th. A moderate M2.0 solar flare occur at 21:51 UTC Thursday evening and a moderate M1.9 Solar Flare this morning at 13:50 UTC. The blasts show  that the newly-visible sunspot is capable of significant eruptions. AR1389 is not yet facing Earth, but it is turning in our direction. Sunspots 1386 and 1387 have “beta-gamma” magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares. In addition, new sunspot 1389 produced......
7. Long duration M2.0 solar flare peaked today producing Earth directed CME At 10:45 UTC Sunday morning, March 4, 2012, a long duration M2.0 solar flare peaked and generated Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The latest blast was again centered around Sunspot 1429 located in the northeast quadrant. A 46 minute long 10cm Radio Burst, also known as a TenFlare, was recorded as well and measured 750 pfu. A type IV Sweep Frequency Event resulted. A Type IV Radio Emission occured. Type IV emissions occur in......